{"id":9832,"date":"2026-01-30T03:20:45","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T06:20:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/impactocastex.com.ar\/?p=9832"},"modified":"2026-01-30T03:20:45","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T06:20:45","slug":"el-banco-central-advierte-que-el-proceso-de-desinflacion-enfrenta-riesgos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/impactocastex.com.ar\/?p=9832","title":{"rendered":"El Banco Central advierte que el proceso de desinflaci\u00f3n enfrenta \u201criesgos\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Banco Central (BCRA) admite hoy que el proceso de desinflaci\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda en marcha enfrenta, en el primer trimestre de este a\u00f1o, \u201criesgos de car\u00e1cter estacionales y transitorios\u201d e incertidumbre, <\/b>debido al cambio en la composici\u00f3n de la canasta del \u00cdndice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) que comenzar\u00e1 a aplicar el Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edsticas y Censos (Indec).<\/p>\n

La visi\u00f3n aparece en la primera publicaci\u00f3n del informe trimestral de pol\u00edtica monetaria que hizo esta gesti\u00f3n<\/b> para compartirle a la sociedad su an\u00e1lisis \u201csobre la coyuntura econ\u00f3mica nacional e internacional, evaluar la din\u00e1mica inflacionaria y sus perspectivas\u201d.<\/p>\n

\n

Publicamos el Informe de Pol\u00edtica Monetaria (IPOM) de diciembre 2025.<\/p>\n

Para acceder al informe completo:https:\/\/t.co\/PlzRD2mwzH<\/a>#IPOMBCRA<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/nfSKoIUeRG<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 BCRA (@BancoCentral_AR) January 29, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

All\u00ed menciona, entre los factores de riesgo, \u201cla estacionalidad del agrupado Carnes y derivados en el per\u00edodo noviembre-marzo que puede afectar la categor\u00eda N\u00facleo del IPC\u201d<\/b>. <\/p>\n

La entidad, que no arriesga ninguna estimaci\u00f3n sobre la inflaci\u00f3n en este per\u00edodo y recuerda que no trabaja con \u201cmetas de inflaci\u00f3n\u201d, menciona en segundo orden \u201cla correcci\u00f3n prevista en las tarifas residenciales de electricidad y gas por la readecuaci\u00f3n del esquema de subsidios, con impacto en la categor\u00eda Regulados\u201d.<\/b><\/p>\n

\"Regulados\"<\/p>\n

A eso agrega el impacto derivado de los nuevos ponderadores de la canasta de consumo del IPC <\/b>anunciado por el Indec, que hacen que en el nuevo \u00edndice de enero, por conocerse el 10 de febrero, tengan mayor peso por caso los servicios<\/b> (Vivienda\/tarifas sube al 14,5% y Transporte al 14,3%), mientras se reduce la ponderaci\u00f3n de la categor\u00eda Alimentos y Bebidas<\/b>, seg\u00fan los datos censales recogidos por ese organismo en 2017\/18 para reflejar patrones de consumo m\u00e1s actuales.<\/p>\n

Vale recordar que, seg\u00fan los c\u00e1lculos de analistas, la aplicaci\u00f3n de este nuevo criterio hubiera significado que la inflaci\u00f3n en 2025 se ubicara entre 2,5 y 3 puntos por encima del 31,5% reportado oficialmente, con la canasta de consumo \u201cvieja\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"Amortiguadores\"<\/p>\n

El BCRA, no obstante, dice que este per\u00edodo de incertidumbre no pone en riesgo el proceso de desinflaci\u00f3n hacia adelante <\/b>y reitera que espera que, una vez superadas las presiones transitorias e internalizados los cambios metodol\u00f3gicos de la actualizaci\u00f3n del IPC, \u201cla inflaci\u00f3n profundice su tendencia a la baja\u201d.<\/p>\n

Especialmente, porque conf\u00eda que, al mantener un \u201csesgo contractivo de la pol\u00edtica monetaria\u201d y esperar una \u201cmayor estabilidad cambiaria esperada\u201d, y registrarse a la vez una \u201creducci\u00f3n en la inercia inflacionaria\u201d (impl\u00edcita, por ejemplo, en los acuerdos salariales)<\/b>, la nominalidad de la econom\u00eda tendr\u00eda una tendencia a la baja asegurada en el segundo trimestre del a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

\"Precios<\/p>\n

De hecho, menciona que los indicadores de inflaci\u00f3n de alta frecuencia \u201cligados al rubro de alimentos\u201d que monitorea \u201cya muestran durante las primeras semanas de enero una moderaci\u00f3n<\/b> de las presiones sobre precios en productos que no est\u00e1n sujetos a factores estacionales\u201d.<\/p>\n

La entidad a cargo de Santiago Bausili reitera en este informe su optimismo sobre un aumento de sus reservas a partir del crecimiento que espera en la demanda de pesos<\/b> y de \u201cla mejora esperada de las condiciones de financiamiento externo\u201d a partir de \u201cuna cosecha fina r\u00e9cord y ante las buenas perspectivas para la cosecha gruesa\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cEn igual sentido contribuir\u00edan los env\u00edos de hidrocarburos y minerales, a medida que maduren los proyectos existentes y se agreguen nuevos al amparo del RIGI. Por su parte, las importaciones de bienes acompa\u00f1ar\u00e1n la expansi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica, bajo elasticidades que se normalizar\u00e1n hacia par\u00e1metros hist\u00f3ricos\u201d, detalla, antes de recordar que, seg\u00fan el Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado, los analistas esperan para este a\u00f1o un super\u00e1vit comercial de US$10.498 millones<\/b>, con crecimiento tanto de las exportaciones (5,1%) como de las importaciones (5,7%).<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, dice que ese aumento de sus reservas (que estima con un piso de US$10.000 millones para el a\u00f1o) depender\u00e1 en definitiva \u201cde las posibilidades de acceso del Tesoro a los mercados internacionales<\/b> para refinanciar la deuda externa\u201d que vaya venciendo.<\/p>\n

\"Las<\/p>\n

En este sentido, estima que los medios de pago privados transaccionales (M2 privado) podr\u00edan experimentar durante este a\u00f1o \u201cuna remonetizaci\u00f3n cercana a 0,6% del Producto Bruto Interno\u201d <\/b>y que, \u201ccomo parte de la moderaci\u00f3n antes mencionada, esa expansi\u00f3n durante el primer trimestre ser\u00eda de s\u00f3lo el 0,1% del PBI\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u200bLa entidad lo admite en su primera publicaci\u00f3n del Informe Monetario Trimestral, ante los ajustes proyectados en precios regulados y el impacto que tendr\u00e1 la aplicaci\u00f3n del nuevo IPC\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El Banco Central (BCRA) admite hoy que el proceso de desinflaci\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda en…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9833,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[89],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nacionales"],"yoast_head":"\nEl Banco Central advierte que el proceso de desinflaci\u00f3n enfrenta \u201criesgos\u201d -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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