{"id":20377,"date":"2026-06-14T23:18:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T02:18:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/impactocastex.com.ar\/?p=20377"},"modified":"2026-06-14T23:18:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T02:18:28","slug":"juan-carlos-de-pablo-explico-por-que-la-economia-argentina-podria-enfrentar-una-enfermedad-holandesa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/impactocastex.com.ar\/?p=20377","title":{"rendered":"Juan Carlos de Pablo explic\u00f3 por qu\u00e9 la econom\u00eda argentina podr\u00eda enfrentar una \u201cenfermedad holandesa\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>El economista <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lanacion.com.ar\/economia\/la-minima-condicion-suficiente-es-la-clave-nid13062026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer\" title=\"https:\/\/www.lanacion.com.ar\/economia\/la-minima-condicion-suficiente-es-la-clave-nid13062026\/\"><b>Juan Carlos de Pablo<\/b><\/a> asegur\u00f3 este domingo que la Argentina re\u00fane condiciones para experimentar una <b>\u201cenfermedad holandesa\u201d,<\/b> un fen\u00f3meno asociado al ingreso masivo de divisas que puede afectar la competitividad de otros sectores de la econom\u00eda. Seg\u00fan explic\u00f3, el crecimiento de las exportaciones energ\u00e9ticas y la producci\u00f3n agropecuaria est\u00e1 generando <b>una fuerte oferta de d\u00f3lares<\/b> que podr\u00eda derivar en ese escenario.<\/p>\n<p>Durante una entrevista con Jos\u00e9 Del Rio en <i>Comunidad de Negocios <\/i>(LN+), el economista sostuvo que la discusi\u00f3n sobre este fen\u00f3meno cobr\u00f3 relevancia a partir de los cambios registrados en la estructura exportadora del pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n<p><b>\u201cEstoy convencido de que lo que est\u00e1 pasando, con el r\u00e9cord de producci\u00f3n agr\u00edcola y la cuesti\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica, se ha puesto de moda la cuesti\u00f3n de la enfermedad holandesa\u201d<\/b>, afirm\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/resizer.glanacion.com\/resizer\/v2\/XASTLS5IXFBIZA4Y5P3EP7T2LE.jpg?auth=b299df943b159d5172f17e5693671da476fbdffe2f46ab90f9bc71ae92c6e199&amp;smart=true&amp;width=2000&amp;height=1333\" alt=\"El economista Juan Carlos de Pablo\" height=\"1333\" width=\"2000\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Luego explic\u00f3 el origen del concepto. \u201cSe llama as\u00ed porque en la d\u00e9cada del 60 los holandeses descubrieron gas en el Mar del Norte, que es un producto exportable, se cay\u00f3 el tipo de cambio y <b>se destroz\u00f3 parte del sector industrial.<\/b> Le llovieron d\u00f3lares. Es el problema que tenemos en este momento\u201d, se\u00f1al\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>De Pablo consider\u00f3 que el contexto actual presenta caracter\u00edsticas similares a las que dieron origen a ese fen\u00f3meno. \u201cEvidentemente estamos en un contexto en el que podr\u00eda aparecer esa enfermedad holandesa. Te aparecieron los productos energ\u00e9ticos. Argentina era un pa\u00eds superavitario en materia energ\u00e9tica. Gracias al kirchnerismo, nos volvimos un importador neto. Ahora, otra vez superavitario.<b> Encima ten\u00e9s 160 millones de toneladas de productos primarios. Llueven los d\u00f3lares por todos lados<\/b>\u201d, sostuvo.<\/p>\n<p>En ese marco, remarc\u00f3 que la abundancia de divisas constituye hoy uno de los principales desaf\u00edos econ\u00f3micos. \u201cEn este momento, <b>el problema es de oferta.<\/b> Si el Banco Central no estuviera comprando algunos d\u00f3lares&#8230;\u201d, plante\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/resizer.glanacion.com\/resizer\/v2\/RLK56GEC2JGCHPUFERXJK2KYCI.jpg?auth=24957d2137fbad6ddb751db110ad64c33a7afdcb03b68b91af2cb1c7901b4ffa&amp;smart=true&amp;width=6000&amp;height=4000\" alt=\"Luis Caputo, ministro de Econom\u00eda\" height=\"4000\" width=\"6000\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u201cHacer pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica hoy es m\u00e1s dif\u00edcil que hace 50 a\u00f1os porque las velocidades son distintas. Es lo que hay. Ahora hay un relanzamiento tras otro. El otro d\u00eda, un colega me dijo que el equipo econ\u00f3mico reflexion\u00f3 y le est\u00e1 haciendo caso al FMI en aumentar las reservas, pero no es as\u00ed. Apareci\u00f3 la oportunidad de la caja. Dieron vuelta la tortilla y se est\u00e1n preparando para 2027\u2033, continu\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>Por otra parte, De Pablo habl\u00f3 sobre el concepto de \u201cnacionalismo\u201d y declar\u00f3: \u201cEsto es un quilombo, pero es nuestro quilombo\u201d. \u201cLa migraci\u00f3n es un fen\u00f3meno minoritario y tienen que a ver muchas condiciones para que eso suceda\u201d, sigui\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>El economista sugiri\u00f3 que la pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica del Gobierno es \u201cequilibrio fiscal y Federico Sturzenegger\u201d y dijo que, dentro de eso, busca \u201cdarle la vuelta\u201d a todos los temas de la agenda. A su vez, en cuanto al a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo, afirm\u00f3 que <b>la probabilidad de que Milei sea reelecto \u201ces muy alta\u201d<\/b>. \u201cMoraleja: si usted tiene una oportunidad de negocio y est\u00e1 dudando, no es por el tema de la posibilidad, sino porque el costo de pifiar puede ser muy grande. No es un tema de dudas\u201d, remarc\u00f3.<\/p>\n<h1>La inflaci\u00f3n y Donald Trump<\/h1>\n<p>M\u00e1s adelante, el economista tambi\u00e9n se refiri\u00f3 a la evoluci\u00f3n de la inflaci\u00f3n y relativiz\u00f3 la magnitud de las cifras actuales en comparaci\u00f3n con las registradas en a\u00f1os anteriores. \u201cComparado a lo de antes, es nada. Ahora discutimos 2,1 o 2,2. En materia de inflaci\u00f3n, la novedad es m\u00e1s Estados Unidos que la Argentina\u201d, afirm\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>Tambi\u00e9n analiz\u00f3 la situaci\u00f3n internacional y se refiri\u00f3 al acuerdo de paz entre Estados Unidos e Ir\u00e1n. En ese sentido, se mostr\u00f3 esc\u00e9ptico respecto de los anuncios realizados por el presidente estadounidense Donald Trump.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c<b>Lo quiero ver. Es muy boc\u00f3n. Quiero ver c\u00f3mo se firma, cu\u00e1les son las velocidades<\/b>. Da la sensaci\u00f3n de que Ir\u00e1n tiene menos apuro que Trump\u201d, dijo. Adem\u00e1s, cuestion\u00f3 algunos planteos del mandatario republicano: \u201cEl Trump oral es no cre\u00edble\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u200bDurante su paso por LN+, el economista analiz\u00f3 el impacto del ingreso de divisas por el agro y la energ\u00eda y advirti\u00f3 sobre sus posibles efectos en la actividad\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El economista Juan Carlos de Pablo asegur\u00f3 este domingo que la Argentina re\u00fane condiciones para&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20378,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[89],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nacionales"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Juan Carlos de Pablo explic\u00f3 por qu\u00e9 la econom\u00eda argentina podr\u00eda enfrentar una \u201cenfermedad holandesa\u201d -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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