{"id":12678,"date":"2026-03-07T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/impactocastex.com.ar\/?p=12678"},"modified":"2026-03-07T05:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T08:00:00","slug":"la-crisis-en-medio-oriente-ralentiza-la-demanda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/impactocastex.com.ar\/?p=12678","title":{"rendered":"La crisis en Medio Oriente ralentiza la demanda"},"content":{"rendered":"

La crisis en Medio Oriente sigue escalando y el aumento de la incertidumbre impacta en las decisiones de los principales actores del comercio mundial. El solo hecho del potencial cierre del estrecho de Ormuz<\/b>, por donde pasa el 20% del petr\u00f3leo y gas del comercio global, ya impact\u00f3 en el precio del petr\u00f3leo, que lleg\u00f3 a 80 US$ el barril<\/b>. El mercado asume que, de concretarse la interrupci\u00f3n del tr\u00e1fico mar\u00edtimo de petr\u00f3leo en el estrecho, los precios podr\u00edan escalar hasta 100 US$ el barril<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Inversi\u00f3n de US$20 millones: la familia Brito suma un socio para un frigor\u00edfico y tomar\u00e1n un 30% m\u00e1s de empleados<\/a><\/p>\n

Todo aumento en el precio del petr\u00f3leo tendr\u00e1 un efecto directo en el costo de los fletes mar\u00edtimos, encareciendo toda la cadena comercial y de suministros<\/b>. En la zona de conflicto habr\u00e1 un incremento en el costo de los seguros y muchas compa\u00f1\u00edas se han retirado ante el imprevisible desenlace.<\/p>\n

Este aumento en el precio del petr\u00f3leo, de los fletes mar\u00edtimos, del comercio y de la cadena de suministros generar\u00e1 un incremento en el costo de los alimentos, impactando en la inflaci\u00f3n y provocando una ca\u00edda global del consumo. Las empresas exportadoras de commodities y alimentos han optado por retirarse del mercado al no saber cu\u00e1l ser\u00e1 el costo de transacci\u00f3n final, mientras no se sepa hasta cu\u00e1ndo escalar\u00e1 el conflicto ni qu\u00e9 impacto tendr\u00e1n el petr\u00f3leo, los seguros y los fletes mar\u00edtimos en el precio final de los alimentos<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Reflejo de esta ca\u00edda de la demanda y de la incertidumbre reinante, esta semana, el mercado de Chicago comenz\u00f3 a sentir el impacto de la menor demanda global, con bajas generalizadas en el precio de todos los commodities \u2014trigo, ma\u00edz, soja y harinas\u2014 con la \u00fanica excepci\u00f3n del aceite de soja, que tuvo fuertes subas, mientras el resto de los productos mostraban variaciones negativas en todas las posiciones.<\/p>\n

Lo que sucede es que el aceite de soja es considerado hoy la principal materia prima para producir combustible vegetal, y cuando el precio del petr\u00f3leo sube, autom\u00e1ticamente se incrementa el precio del aceite de soja.<\/p>\n

En la Argentina, los mercados de los principales productos \u2014trigo, soja, ma\u00edz y girasol\u2014 siguen influenciados por factores locales de oferta y demanda y por el comportamiento y la tendencia del mercado de exportaci\u00f3n FOB Upriver<\/b>. Por este motivo, cada producto tiene su propio an\u00e1lisis y perspectivas de precios futuros.<\/p>\n

\"Puerto<\/p>\n

Veamos el caso del trigo. Las Declaraciones Juradas de Ventas al Exterior (DJVE) llegan a un total de 11,3 millones de toneladas<\/b>, mientras que las compras totales ascienden a 13,5 millones de toneladas<\/b>, de las cuales 9,8 millones<\/b> son compras a precio y 1,4 millones<\/b> son fijaciones de contratos previos. La posici\u00f3n de compras de los exportadores llega entonces a 11,2 millones de toneladas<\/b>, mientras que las ventas alcanzan 11,3 millones de toneladas<\/b>. Podemos decir, entonces, que la exportaci\u00f3n ya tiene cubierto casi el 100% de las ventas.<\/p>\n

Las ventas totales representan el 63% del saldo exportable<\/b>, estimado en 18 millones de toneladas<\/b>. Cualquier nueva venta futura es probable que tenga un impacto alcista en los precios del trigo disponible. Tal vez por este motivo el mercado de futuros A3 en Rosario muestra tendencia alcista para las posiciones futuras, con el disponible a 185,5 US$\/ton<\/b>, marzo a 188 US$\/ton<\/b>, junio a 192 US$\/ton<\/b>, julio a 204 US$\/ton<\/b> y diciembre a 208 US$\/ton<\/b>. Un mercado netamente alcista para el futuro.<\/p>\n

El autor es presidente de Pablo Adreani & Asociados<\/i><\/p>\n

\u200bEl aumento del precio del petr\u00f3leo est\u00e1 afectando la cadena de suministros de las commodities agr\u00edcolas\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La crisis en Medio Oriente sigue escalando y el aumento de la incertidumbre impacta en…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12679,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[89],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nacionales"],"yoast_head":"\nLa crisis en Medio Oriente ralentiza la demanda -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/impactocastex.com.ar\/?p=12678\" 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